SOUR GRAPES OF DEMOCRACY: Political, economic uncertainties

Adisa Adeleye
IT is always nice that Nigerians – good and patient creatures, would always remember every year their escape from oppressive dictatorship into their haven of freedom, howbeit, dangerous. In their innocent naivety, some Nigerians would conclude that the worst form of democratic rule is better than the best form of military administration.
The virtue of the present democratic rule is the freedom of expression and the ability and the opportunity of the citizens to say what they feel about how they are being ruled without that fear of total disappearance or jail term (without trial). At least, the media could express voices of dissent within the polity without risk of either the printing houses being surrounded by the fierce looking security officials or the editors being dragged for a ‘chat‘ with security overlords from ‘above‘, as was the common practice.

Thus eleven years of democratic rule have given Nigerians that unique advantage of shouting hoarse without being heard or of knocking without being answered. Afterall, it is our wish at all times that we prefer freedom with danger to servitude in tranquility. Many people might think that what we are getting at the moment might not resemble rich dividends we deserve or desire, but the opposite of what Nigerians (except the wealthy few) prefer.

In the midst of perplexing confusion, the politicians of old order, under the nascent freedom of expression, could find the Abacha‘s dreadful era, a golden episode as compared with the present dispensation. In an atmosphere of freedom of expression (a dividend of Democracy), it is not uncommon to berate the attitude of the ‘Youth‘ in the art of governance because of lack of visible signs of real infrastructural development (except in a few states) in areas under their control.

In real facts, if expectations under democratic rule since 1999 would be compared with the observed reality on ground today, the only conclusion to be drawn would be that art of living to witness the snail speed (not on the real track) towards political stability and economic transformation. At all levels, progress could be measured in terms of advisory groups, special committees and other appointed bodies to look into specific frequent problems without solutions.

Official solutions often await other occurrences (often more severe). The tardy way of governance at all levels in the country points to the inevitable conclusion that the country is treading the dangerous path of a failing State.

There are many issues that could have been finally settled by now which have grown into terrible distractions on our body politic. It is unfortunate that President Jonathan has not considered ‘wholesale‘ reform of electoral system necessary but would concentrate on strict punishment for electoral fraudsters like snatchers of ballot boxes or recorders of false results.

The criminal element in the voting system, as it exists today, has not been easy to prove as verdicts of Election Tribunals have shown. It is better to prevent election fraud than rely on punishment as a deterrent. I think Justice Uwais Committee has provided enough ground for a comprehensive review of the present unsatisfactory system.

In tackling the problem of the voting system in the country, the President is expected to be a ‘Statesman‘ and a visionary ‘Leader‘, and not a party loyalist bent on seeing the continuous rule and domination of his party in the country.

A more serious case is the amendments to the 1999 Constitution by the Legislature (dominated by the ruling party) and reported being sent to the States (majority of which is controlled by the ruling party, PDP) for endorsements.

They are believed to contain electoral reforms, State creation, etc which would involve lives of Nigerians, which should not be left to the dictates of members of the Legislature but to the free decision of all Nigerians through a sort of referendum.

Instead of a piece_ by _piece approach, a Constitutional Conference should examine a number of other relevant issues like State Police; True Federalism; Parliamentary/Presidential system; Revenue Allocation; Economic and Political Reconstruction to ensure national unity, political stability and economic prosperity.

It has been realistically observed that in politics, we are remiss and in economics, we are amiss. Some distortions have pervaded the economy since 1960 that real growth has remained stunted, if not static. The manufacturing industry lacks the stamina to produce enough for the home market and it is under severe strains to face foreign competition because of its high cost structure.

Factors inhibiting continuous industrial growth are – lack of adequate power supply, high interest lending rate (18%+) and low value of the naira (N150 to $). It looks as if there is a symbiotic relationship between the officials of the Central Bank and the Deposit Banks (which borrow at 6% and lend at about 21%).

On devaluation, the former President Shagari said in 1983, ‘I have followed with keen interest the on_going debate on devaluation of the Naira. I am convinced that given the structure of the Nigerian economy which depends on one export commodity on the one hand, and places heavy reliance on imports of capital goods and raw materials on the other hand, devaluation will not be in the best interest of our country‘.

Under Shagari, Naira accounted for $1.6 and bank lending rate was below 10%. Shagari was overthrown in 1983 and the succeeding military adventurers ‘assaulted‘ the mighty Naira.

If the present Central Bank Governor could find a way to bring all infrastructural development projects under a low interest regime (as he is trying to do), he would have departed from his conservative and growth_shy predecessors.

On the ripened grapes of democracy which have turned sour over the years, I cannot but agree with former Minister of Information, Jerry Gana in his poetic assessment. ‘We are people who have lost our values. We have plenty of religious people, but no righteousness; plenty of priests, but no holiness; plenty of education, but no character; plenty of leadership, but no vision‘.

But we can change our attitude under a visionary Leader.